Determine if your hand is worth continuing vs a bet by weighting your equity vs pot odds. Considerations and additional points when counting outs Double Counting One must always be careful not to double count outs. With a big draw such as a straight and flush draw we will have 9 outs to the flush and 8 outs to the straight. Table #3 – Poker Odds Chart. As you can see in the above table, if you’re holding a flush draw after the flop (9 outs) you have a 19.1% chance of hitting it on the turn or expressed in odds, you’re 4.22-to-1 against.

When facing a calling decision with a drawing hand, it’s important to count your outs, determine the probability of making your hand, and then compare that to the odds the pot is laying you. In this post, I describe how to use an “outs and odds” chart to determine the exact probability and odds of making your hand by the turn or river, and then how to determine whether you should call or not, and, if you do, how much you should expect to win (or lose) each time. I also explain the short-cut “2 & 4 rule” method to approximate the probability of making a draw.

How to Use the Chart:

The way you use the table is to count your outs on the flop, and then find the appropriate corresponding column in the spreadsheet to determine whether you’re getting the right odds or not. Login poker 88 club.

For instance, the “Make Hand on Turn” columns is for those instances when you intend to give up after one street (i.e., on the turn) if you miss your draw. The “Make Hand on River” column is for those instances when you’re making a decision to call on the turn to see the river and try to make your hand. And the “Make on Turn or River” is for those cases where you’re pondering a call on the flop and expect to see both the turn and river cards (e.g., because you’re all-in).

To determine if you’re getting the right odds or not, you compare the probability of making your hand (i.e., your equity) to the odds you’re being offered by the pot. If your equity is higher than the pot odds, you should call. If it’s less than the pot odds, you should fold.

For example, let’s say you have A♣2♣ on a Q♣K♥5♣ flop. The pot is $100 and your opponent moves all-in for his remaining $50. You are relatively confident he has a moderately strong hand like top pair. You have him covered. Is it correct (read: profitable) for you to make the call or not?

Given our read of the villain, we assume that if we hit a flush we will win the hand. We have nine unseen club cards, or outs, available to make our flush (K♣, J♣, T♣, 9♣, 8♣, 7♣, 6♣, 4♣, & 3♣).

After the villain shoves, the pot is $150, and it will cost us $50 to call. This means we’re getting $150:$50, or 3:1 on our money to make the call. Converting this to a percentage form gives us: 1/(3+1) = 25%. This means we need more than 25% equity to make this a profitable call.

Per the Outs and Odds chart, the probability of making our hand with nine outs and two cards to come is 35% (i.e., we can make our hand on the turn and/or the river). Since our equity (35%) is greater than the pot odds (25%), this is a profitable call to make. In fact, not making the call is a mathematical mistake. Even if we don’t make the flush, we will have still made the correct +EV decision. And this is all that matters in poker: making the right decision. The results of a single hand situation don’t matter a whit. The only thing that matters is that you make +EV decisions, over and over.

So, calling on the flop is correct. But let’s look at what the situation would be if both of us checked the flop and our opponent waited to shove on the turn (and assuming the turn was not a flush card). In this case, we still have 9 outs, but the probability of us making our hand on the river (i.e., with just one card to come) would drop to only 19.6%. And since 19.6% is less than 25%, this would not be a profitable call for us to make. The most positive EV play you can make in this situation would be to simply fold.

Using an Outs and Odds Chart like this to determine the profitability of calling with draws should be a fundamental part of your game. If it’s not, you’re just guessing when you call, and as this example shows, guessing could easily lead you to a wrong, unprofitable answer.

Expected Value (EV):

If you’re interested in determining just how profitable calling is, you need to do so via the EV equation:

EV = [(probability of winning)(amount to be won)] – [(probability of losing)(amount to be lost)]

In the first example, above, our probability of winning with nine outs and two cards to come (i.e., turn and river) is 35%. The amount we would win is how much is already in the pot at that point, or $150. The probability of losing (i.e., not making our flush) is 100% – 35% = 65%, and the amount we’ll lose is the $50 that’s required to make the call. Our EV of calling on the flop is therefore:

EV= (35% x $150) – (65% x $50) = +$20.00

Said another way, calling this shove on the flop will net us $20 on average.

Conversely, in the second example above, the EV of calling a turn shove with just one card to come would be:

EV= (19.6% x $150) – (80.4% x $50) = -$10.80

In other words, we would lose nearly $11 on average every time we called a shove like this on the turn.

A Short Cut to Memorization: The Rule of 2 and 4

The best approach to outs and odds is to memorize the key probabilities of the most common situations, like flush and straight draws, hitting a set, and so on. Armed with this knowledge, you can make instant, on-the-fly decisions with relative ease. Just calculate the pot odds and compare to the memorized probabilities.

In lieu of memorizing numbers from a chart, however, there is a simple rule of thumb that will roughly approximate the probability of making your hand. This is called the “Rule of 2 and 4.” Here’s how it works:

Poker Drawing Odds And Outs Game

If you are on the flop and you will see both coming cards (turn and river) if you call, simply multiply the number of outs you have by the number four. The result is the approximate probability of making your draw. Similarly, if you will only see one card (e.g., you’re on the turn and there’s just the river card to come), multiply your outs by two. Again, the result is a rough approximation of making your hand. Let’s see how this works:

In the first example, above, we’re facing a shove on the flop with two cards yet to come, so we multiply 9 x 4 = 36%. Note that this estimation of our equity is very close to the actual correct value of 35%.

Similarly, for the second example, with just one card to come and facing the shove, we would multiply the number of outs by two, which gives us: 9 x 2 = 18%. Again, this is pretty close to the correct value of 19.6%. While not exact, in most cases this will get you close enough to the correct answer to make a good decision.

The Bottom Line:

Learning to count outs and determine the probability of making a draw is one of the most basic skills every poker player should be capable of doing at the table. Taking the time to memorize key percentages from a table, or at least learning the rule of 2 and 4, can and will make the difference between long-term profit or loss. Poker is, fundamentally, a game of math. If you’re not doing the math real time at the tables, you’re just guessing.

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Once the flop has been dealt in Texas Hold'em, you'll be able to count your outs and know how likely it is your hand will improve. That will tell you whether you should stay in the hand or fold.
You can figure out your outs and odds for any hand, but here is a quick and dirty list of the most common scenarios:

Texas Hold'em Cheat SheetOdds Based on Outs after the Flop

If after the flop, you have:
Two outs: Your odds are 11 to 1 (about 8.5 percent)
A common scenario would be when you have a pair and you are hoping your pair becomes a three-of-a-kind (a set).
Four outs: Your odds are 5 to 1 (about 16.5 percent)
A common scenario would be when you are trying to hit an inside str